Urbanization is rapidly increasing in Indonesia, with over 30 million more people expected to move to cities by 2030. This shift has traditionally been accompanied by economic growth. In fact, no country has every climbed from low-income to middle-income status without it. The underlying causes of this include the scale benefits to economies from larger cities, as well as the higher wages that people typically receive as they shift from farming to urban manufacturing and services. Urbanization also poses a series of challenges, however: to inclusiveness, the environment, economic efficiency, and health. How Indonesia designs its cities, particularly their transport systems, will have a significant impact on the country as a whole.
This report describes the potential impacts of technology-based shared mobility services on major aspects of urban life in Indonesia. A multipart analysis was conducted using existing research about Indonesian cities to develop a future scenario in which all personal travel has shifted to shared modes, including public transport and ridesharing. The results are analyzed according to benefits yielded in three major areas – economic efficiency; inclusiveness and well-being; and health and the environment. A fact base of available data on existing transportation infrastructure and travel behavior, data from Uber, and a relatively short outlook period (2020) were used to limit the range of possible outcomes while still providing a platform for understanding the potential benefits of these services.