Trade

Access Partnership worked with Google and the Hinrich Foundation to understand the value of digital trade (including e-commerce, app development, and embedded digital ports) for various economies in Asia. This is crucial as trade flows have switched from physical goods to digital / virtual goods, yet current trade data does not adequately capture these digital flows. There is therefore a risk that policymakers may not prioritise digital trade, as we tend not to value what we cannot measure.

We conducted a comprehensive analysis to quantify the current value of digital exports across various Asian economies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, India, Australia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam, using diverse data sources and advanced economic modelling. We also estimated the potential growth of digital exports by 2030 under different scenarios, developed case studies showcasing local firms benefiting from digital trade, and prepared a detailed report, which was launched in collaboration with the local business community in each market.

Our reports have been widely quoted in each of the focus markets and have been asked to present to APEC officials, ASEAN governments, and trade negotiators.

Access Partnership worked with the Asia Pacific MSME Trade Coalition (AMTC) and Google to analyse how new digital tools can substantially lower export hurdles and costs for small businesses. It also aims to give MSMEs a voice in the ongoing debate on regulating the digital economy, which is heavily skewed towards large multinational corporations. The report highlights the risk of digital trade rules being discussed or built without smaller enterprises in mind, and possibly undermining the substantial global trade opportunity for Asia’s MSMEs.

We analysed how new digital tools – ranging from search engines and online bookkeeping software to cloud computing and freight sensors – can significantly reduce export hurdles and lower export costs for MSMEs in the Asia Pacific by up to 82 percent. The study identified four regulatory challenges for MSMEs: red tape affecting market access, intermediary liability, copyright issues, and cross-border data restrictions. Insights were contextualised to help policymakers understand the risks posed by potential regulations that could limit the access and benefits MSMEs derive from the internet.

Additionally, the team organised key presentations in the APAC region, such as the ASEAN-Australia Workshop in Bangkok (2018), and in LATAM, including the WTO Ministerial Conference – Trade and Sustainable Development Symposium in Buenos Aires (2017), engaging policymakers, business groups, and media representatives.

In 2017, the Vietnamese government issued a directive aimed at strengthening the country’s readiness for Industry 4.0 by developing the necessary IT infrastructure and encouraging business investments in this area through 2020. Digital trade is expected to play a crucial role in realizing this vision, especially considering Vietnam’s significant reliance on trade, as it is ranked among the world’s top 30 net exporters and a leading market for trade relative to GDP.

This study, commissioned by the Hinrich Foundation and conducted by Access Partnership in collaboration with the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), evaluates the current and projected value of digital trade for Vietnam’s exports and overall economy, while also addressing global concerns regarding digital trade. It proposes solutions to ensure seamless trade flows and identifies priority areas to maximize the benefits of digital trade, all while managing the associated risks effectively.

Access Partnership supported UPS develop the “Clearing the Runway for Intra-Asia Trade” report in 2022 that quantifies the intra-regional opportunity with a view to 2030. ​

This report covers 12 major markets, dubbed the “Asia-12”: Australia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. It spans four major segments: retail, industrial manufacturing and automotive, high-tech, and healthcare. It also leverages an exclusive trade industry survey of 198 businesses across these markets. The report’s major finding is that cross-border regional trade in Asia could double in value from 2020 to $13.5 trillion by 2030 under the right conditions, but also faces significant headwinds that could compel trade to stagnate by 2030 if not managed proactively.

This report was awarded the gold standard award for government relations by the Public Relations and Communications Association of Asia Pacific.​

This project’s goal was to contribute to greater awareness, understanding, and implementation of priority DTS, thereby promoting greater digital trade between ASEAN and Australia.​

We developed deep-dive policy briefs, market reports, and digital trade playbooks for AMS including Indonesia, Philippines, and Singapore – outlining the policy and regulatory environment, current and potential size of digital trade, and key digital trade opportunities to capture.​ We also organised a suite of digital trade symposiums and capacity-building workshops across topics such as digital payments, AI, data sharing, cloud computing, and e-invoicing. This included a workshop on women and digital transactions in ASEAN. ​

Additionally, we supported the creation of ASEAN’s Digital Trade Standards and Conformance Working Group (DTSCWG), a platform to exchange information on technical and regulatory requirements of digital trade, identify areas for DTS harmonization, and build capacity among members.​ Communication plans to promote activities under the ASEAN-AU DTS Initiative were also developed and implemented, featuring an interactive website and engaging short videos.

The digital economy is unlocking substantial export opportunities for businesses, particularly micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in Latin America. By leveraging digital technologies, MSMEs have been able to reduce the costs of exporting, access overseas markets more efficiently, and adopt innovative digital solutions. However, the scale of this impact on exports remains unclear, as national statistics have not kept pace with the rapid transformation of the digital economy.

To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a comprehensive analysis focused on six Latin American economies: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Uruguay. Our study quantified the potential of digital exports in these countries, revealing a significant US$140 billion annual opportunity by 2030. This figure represents 2.1 percent of the projected nominal GDP for the region in 2030, underscoring the critical role of the digital economy in shaping future export growth.

As digitalisation reshapes the landscape of international trade, policymakers are increasingly focused on its economic impact and the need to modernise the rules governing global trade. Many economies are now incorporating provisions to enhance digital trade within trade agreements and pursuing agreements dedicated to fostering digital collaboration.

This report aims to equip policymakers with insights to maximise the economic advantages of contemporary digital trade provisions. Through empirical and econometric analysis, we examined the relationship between specific digital measures—such as paperless trading, electronic authentication, and online consumer protection—and their economic contributions.

E-commerce has significantly lowered the barriers for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) to export by reducing trading costs. The shift towards e-commerce has been further accelerated by the pandemic, which restricted international travel and reduced footfall in traditional retail stores. As business e-commerce adoption grows and internet penetration increases in the region, e-commerce has become a vital avenue for local MSMEs to reach foreign customers.

Access Partnership, commissioned by Amazon, conducted a study to evaluate the economic impact of e-commerce export opportunities in Thailand. Through a survey of 300 micro, small, and medium-sized e-commerce sellers in the country, the study found that 90% of respondents view e-commerce as crucial for their export capabilities, and 29% of exporting MSMEs that use e-commerce generate over half of their online sales from international markets. The study estimates that e-commerce sellers in Thailand currently earn approximately THB110.2 billion (USD3.6 billion) annually from sales to overseas consumers, with 31% of this revenue generated by MSMEs. If MSMEs accelerate their adoption of e-commerce for exports, the projected value could increase to THB485.8 billion (USD15.8 billion) by 2026.

In the past, it was believed that only large companies could engage in exports, but with the rise of e-commerce, micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) can now export at significantly lower costs. This shift is particularly evident in Southeast Asia, where rapid e-commerce adoption and rising internet penetration have created new opportunities for local MSMEs to access international markets. Singapore is no exception, as e-commerce has grown rapidly, and cross-border opportunities are increasingly vital for sellers.

A study by Access Partnership, commissioned by Amazon, estimated that e-commerce sellers in Singapore currently earn S$1.4 billion annually from sales to international consumers, with 45% of this revenue generated by MSMEs. If MSMEs accelerate their adoption of e-commerce for exports, this figure could rise to S$3.5 billion by 2026, with 73% earned by MSMEs.

Thailand’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) are well-positioned to leverage the rapid growth of e-commerce, a trend accelerated by the constraints of the COVID-19 pandemic. Cross-border e-commerce, in particular, offers Thai MSMEs new opportunities to tap into global markets, riding on the wave of the country’s rapidly evolving digital economy.

Our research combined insights from surveys of 300 Thai MSMEs engaged in e-commerce and 1,000 e-commerce consumers from the US and UK. To complement these findings, we also conducted economic modelling using data from the World Bank, OECD, and Thailand’s Electronic Transactions Development Agency (ETDA). This comprehensive approach provided a robust understanding of the opportunities and barriers within Thailand’s e-commerce export ecosystem.

Singapore’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) are well-positioned to leverage the rapid growth of e-commerce, a trend accelerated by the constraints of the COVID-19 pandemic. Cross-border e-commerce presents a significant opportunity for MSMEs to engage in global markets, building on Singapore’s robust digital economy and its globally trusted national brand

Our study projected the value of e-commerce exports in key ASEAN countries, including estimates for Singapore through 2027. This report offers insights into the current and future e-commerce activities of Singaporean MSMEs, alongside perspectives from consumers in major overseas export destinations. Additionally, it examines Singapore’s policy landscape and provides strategic recommendations to help the country realise its full market potential.

Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in Vietnam are well-positioned to capitalise on the rapid expansion of the e-commerce sector, driven in large part by the global shift toward online commerce during the COVID-19 pandemic. This growth presents a significant opportunity for Vietnam to meet rising foreign market demand, supported by a policy environment that fosters e-commerce exports.

Our analysis, which included a survey of 300 Vietnamese MSMEs, revealed that 86% consider e-commerce indispensable for exporting. Many highlighted the extensive scale and global reach of international e-commerce platforms as critical tools for connecting with a diverse customer base across multiple countries. Additionally, our findings indicate that with greater adoption of e-commerce by MSMEs, export revenues could significantly rise to VND296.3 trillion (USD13 billion) by 2027, with MSMEs’ share of these revenues increasing from 24% in 2022 to 67% by 2027.

Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in Taiwan are well-positioned to capitalise on the rapid expansion of the e-commerce sector. Spurred by the global acceleration in e-commerce adoption during the COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan has the opportunity to harness strong overseas demand, supported by its export-oriented policies and advanced digital infrastructure.

Our analysis, which included a survey of 300 Taiwanese MSMEs, revealed that 71% view e-commerce as essential for their ability to export. Many highlighted the cost-efficiency of e-commerce compared to traditional offline export methods. The analysis further indicates that with increased adoption of e-commerce, Taiwan’s e-commerce export revenues could reach NTD335.2 billion (USD12.1 billion) by 2027. Moreover, the share of revenue generated by MSMEs is projected to grow from 35% in 2022 to 74% by 2027.

The rising global demand for e-commerce products, combined with regional developments like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), presents a lucrative export opportunity for ASEAN nations. However, despite extensive research on e-commerce in ASEAN, significant knowledge gaps remain regarding the region’s export potential.

Access Partnership has projected e-commerce export volumes for key Asian countries, including estimates for ASEAN-6 exports in 2023 and 2028. The report also highlights insights from MSMEs in ASEAN-6 on their current and anticipated e-commerce activities, alongside consumer perspectives from major overseas export markets. Additionally, it examines the regional policy landscape and proposes policy recommendations to foster the growth of the e-commerce sector in ASEAN-6.

The growing demand for products ordered via e-commerce globally, coupled with regional developments in ASEAN such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) create a lucrative export opportunity for ASEAN members. Vietnam, in particular, is prepared to seize this opportunity owing to its export-oriented economy and its stronghold in consumer electronics exports.

Access Partnership has conducted an analysis of B2C e-commerce exports in key Asian countries, including estimates for B2C e-commerce export revenue for Vietnam in 2023 and 2028. The report also incorporates insights from Vietnamese MSMEs on their current and future e-commerce engagement. Furthermore, the report analyses the policy landscape in Vietnam and proposes potential policy references that can aid in expanding Vietnam’s e-commerce industry.

While physical retail remains popular, the cross-border e-commerce market has experienced remarkable growth, with global retail e-commerce sales more than doubling from USD 2.4 trillion in 2017 to USD 5.3 trillion in 2022. Taiwan is uniquely positioned to harness this trend, leveraging its advanced manufacturing capabilities and strategic location in Asia. The island’s strengths in consumer electronics and robust digital infrastructure offer a solid foundation for substantial e-commerce export growth.

Access Partnership has estimated the size of e-commerce exports in key Asian countries, with this report containing the estimates for e-commerce exports from Taiwan in 2023 and 2028. It also provides insights from Taiwanese MSMEs on their current and future e-commerce engagement. Finally, the report analyses the policy landscape in Taiwan and suggests potential policy references that can help expand Taiwan’s e-commerce industry.

Digitalisation has significantly changed how international trade is conducted, both via the use of digital platforms to facilitate the exchange of non-digital goods and services, as well as through the increase in digitally deliverable exports, including financial and professional services, and mobile apps and content.

Past research in APEC covered the overall economic benefits of digital trade rules on digital trade flows. However, increasing participation in the digital trade ecosystem also depends on the readiness of the domestic business environment, including businesses and consumers. This study explores the trends in digitalisation and digital trade, introduces a novel approach to identify the impact of digitalisation on digital trade flows through a study of APEC economies, and most importantly discusses how APEC policymakers can unlock the benefits of digitalisation.